TAIPEI, Taiwan — China considers it a part of the Chinese nation. The United States considers it a roadblock to further Chinese influence in Asia.
No wonder, then, that Taiwan has long been a point of contention between the superpowers.
Although the U.S. doesn’t officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country, it has played a major role in Taiwan’s security for decades. In the past, the U.S. has sold weapons to Taiwan, and former President Biden said the U.S. would come to the defense of the island if China invades.
But now, at a time when China is working to expand its presence, it seems the Trump administration might upend years of diplomacy in the area.
Here’s a look at how U.S. support for Taiwan has ebbed and flowed throughout the decades and what’s at stake in the future.
Why does the U.S. care about Taiwan?
Though it’s geographically much closer to China — about 80 miles off its coast — Taiwan has geopolitical, technological and other strategic values to the U.S.
A Taiwanese pilot checks on an F-16 fighter jet at Hualien air base in 2023. Taiwan deployed aircraft after the Chinese military launched drills around Taiwan as a “stern warning” over what it called collusion between “separatists and foreign forces,” its Defense Ministry said.
(Taiwan Military News Agency / AP)
As a self-governing democracy, Taiwan is seen as a bulwark against China’s growing clout in Asia.
It is also one in a chain of islands in the Pacific that the U.S. has said are essential to combating Chinese military expansion. A takeover of Taiwan would give China a strong foothold in the region, to the detriment of U.S. allies like Japan, Australia and the Philippines.
In addition, Taiwan is home to the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing; an attack on the island could trigger a complete disruption to the global tech supply chain.
Has the U.S. ever recognized Taiwan as a country?
Not exactly. After World War II and the departure of occupying Japanese troops, the U.S. and its allies placed Taiwan under the governance of the Republic of China, which was ruled by the Kuomintang, also known as the Nationalist Party.
At the time, China was convulsed by civil war. The defeated Nationalist government, led by Chiang Kai-shek, fled to Taiwan in 1949, while the Chinese Communist Party under Mao Zedong established the People’s Republic of China on the mainland. The U.S. continued to provide support for the Nationalist government in Taiwan.
When did U.S. support start to change?
Taiwan was an important part of the U.S. fight against communism for years. However, as China’s power grew, the U.S. started to rethink the relationship. Better Sino-American relations, the reasoning went, might be a way to counter the rise of the Soviet Union.
A screen on a Beijing street shows a news broadcast about China’s military exercises encircling Taiwan in 2022.
(Noel Celis / AFP/Getty Images)
President Nixon made a historic visit to China in 1972, ending years of almost no contact between the two countries. Under President Carter, the U.S. established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China in 1979, paving the way for economic and political collaboration with Beijing.
But that meant severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognizing the Communist Party as the official government of China. The U.S. also had to end a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and withdraw its military personnel from the island.
Where did that leave Taiwan?
Not everyone agreed with the decision to sever ties with the ruling government in Taiwan.
To offer the island some protections, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, which established non-diplomatic channels for engagement and ensured the U.S. would continue to sell arms to Taiwan for self-defense.
With a series of other agreements, the U.S. established its “one China” policy and promised not to formally recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation.
Under this policy, also known as “strategic ambiguity,” the U.S. would not say whether it would provide its military assistance to Taiwan in the case of war with China, but that it expects cross-strait relations to be resolved peacefully and that it opposes unilateral changes to the status quo.
Why is the relationship getting more tense now?
As America’s relationship with China has soured over the last decade, it has deepened its relationship with Taiwan, looking for ways to cooperate on trade and security issues.
In December, the U.S. and Taiwan signed the first agreement in a new trade initiative. In August 2022, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the capital of Taipei, a trip that Beijing vehemently opposed.
And on several occasions, Biden said the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily if China attacked. The White House said each time after Biden’s comments that U.S. policy on Taiwan had not changed.
However, Beijing sees the strengthening partnership as a gradual shift away from the long-held “one China” policy. It has responded with more military drills and operations around Taiwan, ratcheting up concerns about a potential conflict.
How might that change further under Trump?
While the U.S.-Taiwan relationship has long been based on a set of carefully worded rules and quiet diplomacy, President Trump’s style is seen as transactional, and his recent collision with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has alarmed many Taiwanese.
Trump has demanded mineral rights in Ukraine for continued U.S. support in its war with Russia.
Regarding Taiwan, Trump has said that the island should pay the U.S. for its protection and increase its defense spending from about 2.4% GDP to 10% GDP. He has also criticized Taiwan’s semiconductor industry for taking business away from the U.S. and threatened to levy tariffs on Taiwanese chips. Such comments have raised speculation that continued U.S. support could be contingent on meeting Trump’s demands.
