NEW DELHI (Bernama): India will remain the world’s most populous country throughout this century and thus face tremendous economic and environmental pressures, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 report published by the United Nations this week.
China ceded its long-held status as the most populous country to India last year.
“The population of India, which is expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12 per cent after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion,” the report said.
India’s population in 2024 is estimated at 1.45 billion compared with China’s 1.41 billion.
By 2054, India will be home to about 1.69 billion people while China’s population will shrink to 1.21 billion, according to the UN projection.
China’s population in 2100 is projected to be 633 million.
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Morocco, Peru and the Philippines are among the countries that are projected to see the size of their populations shrink during the second half of the 21st century.
A major challenge for countries witnessing rapid population growth is how to reduce future environmental pressures while meeting the needs of their populations.
“Environmental damage often arises from the economic processes that lead to higher standards of living.
Population growth amplifies such environmental pressures by adding to total economic demand,” said the report released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) on World Population Day.
The world’s population is expected to keep rising over the coming 50 or 60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024.
“Changes in global population are uneven and the demographic landscape is evolving, with rapid population growth in some places and rapid ageing in others,” the report said.
Population in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan and Russia, has peaked and is forecast to decline by 14 per cent over the next 30 years.
In places like Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia, the total population is projected to double by 2054.
In Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, the population is also expected to increase through 2054 and could potentially peak in the second half of the century or later.
According to the UN study, the average age of the population globally is also increasing, with the number of those aged 65 or older projected to surpass those below 18 by the late 2070s.
With women having one child fewer on average than they did around 1990, fertility rates are falling.
The average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level required for a population to maintain a constant size, in more than half of all countries and regions.
In one-fifth of countries, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, the average is fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime. – Bernama
