Two-thirds of Americans expect the stock market to gain in 2025, but about the same portion of people expect more political conflict within the US and international discord, a survey shows.
Management consulting firm Gallup surveyed up to 100,000 people registered in its multimode panel between Dec. 4-15, almost a full month after Republican Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
About 66% of respondents tipped 2025 to be a year when the stock market rises, marking a 30 percentage point increase from the 2023 outlook taken in December 2022, during a period of high inflation and low confidence in the economy.
The most recent poll also shows only 23% of Americans expect “positive” political cooperation within the US under the Trump administration, and only 32% predict 2025 will be somewhat peaceful internationally.
The bearish figures are still an improvement over 2023’s 9% and 14% survey outcome, respectively, for US political cooperation and international peace.
The sentiments may have an impact on the crypto markets. History shows that a sustained rise in the stock market can often coincide with a Bitcoin (BTC) rally, as investors are keen to take more risk.
Data from Bitcoin analytics platform Newhedge shows Bitcoin has a volatile correlation to the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), though some industry executives have pointed out that Bitcoin’s price movements are more closely tied to tech stocks.
Still, Bitcoin may be in for a bumpier ride should there be more international disputes.
Bitcoin tanked around 8% in an hour when Iran bombed Israel in a retaliatory attack on April 13 and also plummeted nearly 11% across Feb. 23 to 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, CoinGecko data shows.
That said, Bitcoin rallied when the local US banking system showed signs of fragility in early 2023, as seen by the shock collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, to name a few.
Economic difficulty and China’s increasing power
Gallup said overall, this year’s predictions offered more positivity than they did in 2022, as 54% of respondents expect increasing or full employment and 52% predicted reasonable price growth.
Still, a larger share of respondents saw 2025 as more likely a “year of economic difficulty” amid a rising federal budget deficit and an increase in China’s power.
Predictions from Gallup’s pool of up to 100,000 participants on America’s outlook for 2025. Note: Results of those surveyed with no opinion are not included. Source: Gallup
The poll also split responses between Republicans, Democrats and independents, which generally found Republicans more optimistic for the year ahead than Democrats.
Gallup noted it is typical for Americans who identify with the new president’s party to be more optimistic for the year ahead.
“Trump’s victory in November has energized Republicans and has undoubtedly contributed to their broadly positive expectations for the year ahead.”
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The crypto market itself has seen generally optimistic forecasts for 2025.
Some have tipped a far more crypto-friendly Trump administration and a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve to further bolster Bitcoin’s 2025 performance against the S&P 500 and other notable stock market indexes.
Still, Gallup’s survey wrapped up before the Federal Reserve’smarket committee bearishly trimmed the number of 2025 projected interest rate cuts from five to two in a Dec. 18 meeting, which may create a less favorable macro environment for the stock market and even more so for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
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